TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 8:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in a specific football game, focusing on whether certain players or the defensive units exceed predetermined fantasy point thresholds using a standardized scoring system.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points scored by specified players or defensive units in the full game (including overtime) of the Arizona vs Los Angeles R Pro Football match scheduled for Oct 18, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions as detailed in the scoring format. Players who do not participate or are not assigned a fantasy-point value by Sleeper are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of game expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. Each market individually checks if the specified athlete or defensive unit surpasses their respective fantasy point threshold to determine a "Yes" or "No" outcome.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants, which can differ from sportsbook odds that are initially set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and risk management into their lines, while this market aggregates individual predictions. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi and those offered by sportsbooks tend to converge, as more information becomes available and the market incorporates new data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different fantasy point outcomes for the Arizona vs Los Angeles game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the contract price will climb. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, the price will decrease. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust expectations in real-time.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official fantasy point totals from the Arizona vs Los Angeles game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point totals, as calculated by a major fantasy sports provider, will determine which contracts pay out. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual fantasy point total will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for different totals will not. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Arizona or Los Angeles teams would likely cause substantial movement. Changes in player matchups, weather forecasts, or even coaching decisions could also influence traders’ expectations. Unexpected performance from players in recent games, or any updates on player health status, will be closely watched. Significant shifts in public perception, as reflected in fantasy football projections, could also drive trading activity and alter the odds in this market.