TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score the most points in the final quarter of an upcoming football game between Arizona and Los Angeles. It specifically evaluates performance during the 4th quarter, excluding any overtime periods, to decide the outcome.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points during the 4th quarter of the designated football game, excluding overtime. If one team outscores the other, that team's market resolves to Yes, while the opposing team's and the Tie market resolve to No. If both teams score an equal number of points in the quarter, all team markets resolve to No and the Tie market resolves to Yes. The outcome is strictly determined by 4th quarter scoring, with no consideration given to the overall game result or any periods beyond regulation time.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced an outcome, the odds here can diverge. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information or changing circumstances than sportsbooks, as traders can instantly adjust their positions. However, both offer unique perspectives on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome, and the price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular team to win the 4th quarter, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price represents the collective prediction of all participants, and it’s constantly updated as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of the likely winner.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the 4th quarter will be declared the winner. The final score will be verified against official sources to determine which team secured the victory. Traders who correctly predicted the winning team will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as it approaches the resolution date to understand any potential factors that could influence the final result.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Arizona or Los Angeles team would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected shifts in team performance during the game could also move the market. Furthermore, real-time game statistics, such as scoring drives or defensive stops, will influence traders’ perceptions and lead to adjustments in the odds. Unexpected weather conditions or even referee decisions could introduce volatility and affect the outcome of this market.