TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 7:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory in the fourth quarter of an upcoming professional football game between Arizona and Los Angeles. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that determines whether it resolves as 'Yes' or 'No'.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th Quarter of play, with overtime excluded. For markets where Los Angeles is the favorite, resolution occurs if Los Angeles wins the game by exceeding specified point margins (10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points). Conversely, for markets where Arizona is the favorite, resolution occurs if Arizona wins by exceeding specified point margins (2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points). No other factors, including the overall game result or points scored in other quarters, influence the outcome of these markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments of the likely outcome. Often, you'll find that this market incorporates information and perspectives not fully captured by traditional oddsmakers, potentially leading to different probabilities assigned to various results. It is common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the Arizona vs Los Angeles matchup.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the fourth quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders who believe the spread will be higher buy 'yes' contracts, while those who believe it will be lower sell them. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market continuously adjusts to new information and evolving expectations, offering a real-time assessment of the potential outcome of the Arizona vs Los Angeles game.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the fourth quarter of the Arizona vs Los Angeles game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by the governing body of the sport. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The market's resolution is designed to be objective and based on publicly available, verifiable data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any significant news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift traders’ expectations. Unexpected performance in earlier games leading up to the event could also impact the market. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media and sports news, can also play a role, as traders react to evolving narratives surrounding the Arizona vs Los Angeles matchup. Major announcements about team lineups or coaching decisions are also likely to cause movement in the market.