TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 5:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on whether a specific player will achieve various levels of rushing yardage thresholds in an upcoming football game. The outcomes depend entirely on the player's performance during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if the player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player meets the specified rushing yardage threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all statistics include overtime periods. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to differing information and incentives. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows individuals to express their own informed opinions. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges, such as injury reports or weather forecasts. While sportsbooks may adjust lines based on betting patterns, this market directly incorporates the collective beliefs of its participants, potentially leading to different probabilities for the same event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective prediction. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by the trading volume, influence how quickly prices respond to new information. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage totals for the Arizona versus Dallas game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL, and the contract corresponding to the correct rushing yardage range will pay out to its holders. The resolution process ensures transparency and accuracy in determining the winning outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would changes in weather conditions that could affect the game plan and favor either a passing or running attack. Unexpected starting lineup announcements or coaching decisions could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any news regarding the opposing defensive strategies or player matchups could influence trading activity and move the prices in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding the market's movements.