TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 2:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions specific players achieve in an upcoming football game between Arizona and Dallas. The outcome depends on whether designated players meet or exceed specified reception thresholds during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price unless the reception threshold is met. Contracts settle based on actual statistics if the player participates in any play after the first half, regardless of first-half involvement. Penalties that nullify a play do not count toward receptions, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with 'at least' payout criteria, and all statistics include overtime plays.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event draws closer, you may see the prices in this market converge with, or diverge from, sportsbook odds depending on how that information is interpreted by bettors and prediction market participants alike. It’s a fascinating comparison of different forecasting methods.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible reception totals for the Arizona vs Dallas game. The price of each contract represents the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a particular outcome is likely, they will buy contracts representing that outcome, driving up the price. Conversely, if traders believe an outcome is unlikely, they will sell, pushing the price down.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for both the Arizona and Dallas teams will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official statistics released by the league, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual total receptions will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect totals will not.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to wide receivers or quarterbacks on either the Arizona or Dallas teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the market, as these conditions often affect passing games and reception totals. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive strategies could also move the market. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to traders adjusting their positions.