TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players achieve a longest reception exceeding set yardage thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each participant's performance is measured against their individual benchmarks to determine outcomes.
All markets resolve based on whether specified players record a longest reception exceeding defined yardage thresholds during the Arizona vs Dallas game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual longest reception recorded during the game. These provisions apply uniformly across all participant-specific markets, ensuring consistent evaluation of each player’s performance under the stated conditions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a player is more likely to have the longest reception than sportsbooks suggest, the price for that player will decrease, indicating a higher implied probability. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each player, and the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular player, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective expectations of all participants. The price of a contract represents the probability of that player having the longest reception, as perceived by the market.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. Any ties will be handled according to the platform’s rules, which are available on Kalshi. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be publicly available following the completion of the Arizona versus Dallas game.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. News regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or even strategic adjustments announced by either team could all shift trader sentiment. A key player being ruled out would likely impact the odds for their teammates. Furthermore, any updated analysis from sports analysts or unexpected developments in team practice could also lead to price movements in this market, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.