TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between Arizona and Dallas. The outcome depends on whether either quarterback reaches designated yardage thresholds during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price unless the player meets the required passing yards threshold. Actual statistics determine the outcome if the player participates in any play after the first half. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. All contracts cover the full game, including overtime, and only apply to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from sportsbook odds, which are often set by experts and may be influenced by factors like house bias. Sportsbooks often adjust their lines based on betting action and public perception, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs about the likely outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular result. It's common to see prediction markets offer more nuanced probabilities than traditional sportsbooks.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yard totals for both quarterbacks are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official game statistics released by the NFL. The market will determine which outcome—representing a specific range of total passing yards—most accurately reflects the actual game result. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be eligible for payout based on the contract prices at the time of resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players, particularly the quarterbacks for either team, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they predict adverse conditions that could affect passing offenses, could also move the market. Pre-game analysis from experts, updated team strategies, and even significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks could all influence trader behavior and alter the prices in this market. Unexpected news about player availability or coaching decisions could also play a role.