TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 2:08 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific quarterbacks in a football game between Arizona and Dallas, focusing on how many passing touchdowns they achieve. The outcome depends on whether each quarterback meets or exceeds a predetermined threshold of passing touchdowns during the game.
Each market resolves based on whether the named quarterback records a specified minimum number of passing touchdowns in the full game, including any overtime periods. All contracts are designated as 'protected,' meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half concludes (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player meets the required touchdown threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a margin for profit. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own insights and information. As more people participate, the prices tend to become more efficient and potentially more accurate than initial sportsbook offerings. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news impacts perceptions of likely outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. When more traders believe a particular outcome is likely, they buy contracts for that outcome, driving up the price. Conversely, if traders think an outcome is less probable, they sell, lowering the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to reflect the collective intelligence of all participants, offering a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final number of passing touchdowns scored by both the Arizona Cardinals and the Dallas Cowboys during the game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will serve as the basis for verification. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual number of passing touchdowns achieved.