TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting whether specific players and teams will exceed designated fantasy point thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market evaluates individual performance based on a standardized scoring system, reflecting contributions from various in-game activities.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense/special teams units during the full game (including overtime) between Arizona and Dallas, scheduled for November 1, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper's default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams performances according to predefined rates. For instance, passing yards earn 0.04 points per yard (plus 1 point per 25 yards), while a passing touchdown is worth 4 points. Defensive actions such as sacks, interceptions, and fumble recoveries also contribute points, with the defense/special teams unit additionally gaining or losing points based on the opponent's scoring output. Any player who does not participate or lacks a recorded value is considered to have scored zero points. The final point totals are taken from Sleeper's official publication at market expiration, without post-expiration adjustments or rounding. Each market individually checks if the designated participant's points exceed the specified threshold, with outcomes determined solely by these calculations.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks often incorporate a margin for profit, whereas this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. While sportsbook odds may initially be influenced by public perception and team news, this market can adjust rapidly as more information becomes available and traders exchange views. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as the event approaches, with this market potentially offering a more accurate forecast of the final outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official fantasy point totals from the Arizona vs Dallas game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point totals, as calculated by a major fantasy sports provider, will determine which contracts pay out. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the game concludes and the data is officially released. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on publicly available information.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Arizona Cardinals or the Dallas Cowboys would likely cause significant movement. Changes in player matchups, weather forecasts impacting passing or rushing attacks, or even late-breaking news about team strategies could all shift expectations. Unexpected performance from players in recent games, or adjustments to fantasy scoring rules, could also play a role. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on shifts in the market’s assessment of the likely fantasy point total.