TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:31 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the margin of victory for either Arizona or Dallas specifically within the final quarter of their scheduled game on Nov 1, 2026. Outcomes are determined solely by points scored during that period, ignoring any overtime or earlier quarters.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential achieved by either team during the 4th quarter of play (excluding overtime) in the Arizona vs Dallas Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: markets 1-6 cover Dallas winning by progressively larger margins (over 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, 2.5, and 1.5 points respectively), while markets 7-11 cover Arizona winning by progressively larger margins (over 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, and 10.5 points respectively). Only points scored during the 4th quarter count toward these outcomes; any points from earlier quarters or overtime are irrelevant. The governing league's official scoring and game records will determine resolution.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market benefits from input from many individuals. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly before significant events or when new information emerges. However, as the event approaches, this market tends to converge with sportsbook odds, as both attempt to accurately forecast the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 4th quarter spread between Arizona and Dallas. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand. When more people believe Dallas will win by a larger margin, the price of contracts reflecting that outcome increases. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the evolving expectations of participants.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 4th quarter spread of the Arizona vs Dallas game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread, as determined by official game statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract's value at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price action of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Arizona or Dallas teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected performance during earlier games could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, broader trends in team performance and public perception, as reflected in media coverage and expert analysis, can all contribute to movement in this market up until Nov 2, 2026.