TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 3:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Arizona or Dallas specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential achieved by either Arizona or Dallas during the third quarter of the game scheduled for November 1, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold that must be surpassed by the winning team's score advantage in that quarter. For markets where Dallas is the designated winner, resolution occurs if Dallas finishes the third quarter with a lead exceeding the specified point margin. Conversely, markets designating Arizona as the winner resolve if Arizona holds a third-quarter lead greater than the stated margin. Crucially, only points scored during the third quarter contribute to these determinations; performance in any other quarter is irrelevant. The markets collectively cover a range of margins from narrow victories exceeding 1.5 points to decisive wins exceeding 10.5 points, allowing participants to speculate on varying degrees of dominance within a single quarter.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public perception or early betting action. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting volume, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the 3rd quarter spread. It's common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook odds as new information becomes available, and as traders adjust their positions based on analysis and evolving expectations. Examining the difference can offer valuable insights into public versus informed opinion.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the 3rd quarter of the Arizona vs Dallas game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, and the market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the spread. The outcome will be determined by the difference in points scored between the two teams at the end of the third quarter, compared to the contract's specified spread.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Arizona or Dallas teams would likely cause a shift in the spread. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they impact the passing or running game, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any significant pre-game analysis from reputable sports analysts or unexpected lineup changes could lead to adjustments in the market price. Public sentiment and large trades on Kalshi will also contribute to price movements leading up to Nov 1, 2026.