TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 2:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Arizona or Dallas in the first half of their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that determines the outcome.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the first half of the Arizona vs Dallas Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. For markets where Dallas is the favored team to win by a specified margin, the outcome resolves to Yes if Dallas wins by more than the stated point spread. Conversely, for markets where Arizona is the favored team, the outcome resolves to Yes if Arizona wins by more than the stated point spread. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the first half of play, with no consideration given to the final game result or points scored in the second half. Each market operates independently, allowing for multiple resolutions depending on the actual point differential in the first half.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from initial sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of money flows into either the prediction market or traditional sportsbooks. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first half of the Arizona vs Dallas game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, aiming to accurately represent the collective prediction. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a specific outcome in the first half.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first half spread of the Arizona vs Dallas game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be determined by the actual point difference at the end of the first half, as recorded by official game statistics. The market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the correct spread, and 0 for all other contracts. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout of $100 per contract purchased.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 2, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Arizona or Dallas teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also move the market. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team lineups could also cause price fluctuations. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal shifts in market sentiment and drive price changes.