TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 4:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming college football game between Arizona State and BYU. It includes scenarios where either team scores first, or neither team scores a touchdown during the entire match, including any overtime periods.
The market determines the outcome based on which team scores the first touchdown in the Arizona State versus BYU college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. All types of touchdowns—including offensive, defensive, and special teams plays—are counted. If the first touchdown occurs in overtime, the respective team's market resolves to Yes. Should neither team score a touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime, the 'No team scores a TD' market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the market remains active and resolves based on the final official result. If the game does not start within the 48-hour window, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi clarifies that it is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks and logos belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows traders to express their own beliefs, potentially leading to odds that more accurately predict the outcome as new information emerges. It’s common to see prediction market prices move closer to the eventual result as the event approaches, sometimes diverging from sportsbook odds due to differing information or perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome—in this case, Arizona St or BYU scoring the first touchdown. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each team scoring first. The market depth shows the available buy and sell orders at different price points.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be determined by which team is officially recorded as scoring the first touchdown in the Arizona St vs BYU game. The official game statistics will serve as the source of truth for determining the winning outcome. The platform will then finalize the market, and traders will receive payouts based on their positions.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Arizona St or BYU would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor a specific team's offensive style, could also move the market. Furthermore, pre-game analysis from sports analysts and any late-breaking news about team strategies or lineup changes could all contribute to price fluctuations as traders react to new information before Oct 31, 2026.