TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 7:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various thresholds of points scored in the final quarter of a college football matchup, allowing participants to speculate on how high-scoring the last quarter will be. The outcome depends solely on the combined points each team scores during that specific period, with different markets covering increasing point totals.
All markets resolve based solely on the total points scored by both teams combined during the fourth quarter (excluding overtime) of the Arizona State versus BYU college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: if the combined fourth-quarter points exceed that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. For all markets, only points scored during regulation fourth-quarter play count—overtime points are excluded. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific threshold they selected.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. If a significant discrepancy exists, it might indicate that the crowd believes a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially regarding impactful events like injuries or weather changes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of the event occurring; a higher price suggests a greater perceived chance. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective beliefs of all participants. This creates a real-time assessment of the potential for a high-scoring or low-scoring fourth quarter.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official total points scored in the fourth quarter of the Arizona St vs BYU game, as reported by official game statistics. The final score will be cross-referenced with established sports data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency. This ensures a fair and reliable outcome for all traders participating in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Arizona St or BYU would likely cause movement, as would updates on weather conditions that could impact scoring. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected game developments during the first three quarters could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role in how this market behaves leading up to the game's conclusion.