TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 5:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first half of an upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific margin by which one team must lead or trail at halftime for the contract to settle positively.
All markets resolve solely based on points scored during the first half of the Arizona State versus BYU college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. For any market where BYU must win by a specified margin, the outcome settles as 'Yes' only if BYU's first-half score exceeds Arizona State's by more than the stated threshold. Conversely, markets requiring Arizona State to win by a certain margin resolve 'Yes' only if Arizona State's first-half points surpass BYU's by the exacted amount. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the actual first-half result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets settle at a fair price, meaning neither 'Yes' nor 'No' outcomes are enforced based on hypothetical scenarios. The resolution exclusively considers the official score at halftime, with no regard for the final full-game result.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, as they incentivize participants to express their true beliefs. It’s common to see this market’s pricing diverge from initial sportsbook lines as new information becomes available and more traders participate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a constantly evolving price discovery process. This process allows the market to aggregate diverse perspectives and arrive at a predictive probability for the Arizona St. vs BYU spread.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-half point spread of the Arizona St. vs BYU game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final score at halftime, as recorded by official game statistics. This ensures an objective and transparent determination of the outcome, allowing for a clear and unambiguous settlement of the market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Arizona St. or BYU teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also move the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could affect trader sentiment. Public perception, as reflected in betting trends and expert analysis, can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.