TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 11:55 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional Ettan soccer match between Ariana FC and Trollhattans. The result will be determined based on the final score after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any added stoppage time. The event covers three possible outcomes: a win for either team or a tie.
The event resolves based on the result of the Ariana FC vs Trollhattans professional Ettan soccer match originally scheduled for November 1, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). Three distinct markets correspond to the three possible outcomes: Ariana FC win, Trollhattans win, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price according to the platform's guidelines. The event specifically excludes outcomes determined by extra time or penalty shootouts, focusing solely on the result at the end of regular time plus stoppage minutes.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, and can differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the views of individuals willing to put their money behind their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when there's significant public interest or disagreement about the likely outcome. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, as traders react quickly to developments. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the event's probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders for contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market's current probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective belief. The market depth – the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels – indicates the strength of conviction behind each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Ariana FC vs Trollhattans match, as reported by a recognized sports authority. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment. The final result will be clearly displayed on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player suspensions would likely cause price fluctuations. Weather conditions on match day could also play a role, potentially favoring one team over another. Significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could also move the market. Finally, even late-breaking news about team morale or internal conflicts could impact trader behavior and alter the probabilities reflected in the contract prices.