TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks how decisively either team wins during the final quarter of a football game. It focuses solely on the point differential in the last quarter, ignoring any points scored before or after that period. Bettors assess each team's likely performance under late-game pressures.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential during the 4th quarter of the specified ARI Cardinals vs NY Giants game, with overtime excluded. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the winning team exceeds the designated point margin for that market. Each market features a different threshold, ranging from narrow margins like 1.5 points to larger spreads like 10.5 points, allowing participants to bet on varying degrees of dominance. Only points scored in the 4th quarter count, meaning earlier or later scoring has no impact on resolution. These markets enable speculation on which team will control the game's closing moments and by how much.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing this market to sportsbook lines can reveal where the crowd believes there's value or mispricing, potentially offering an edge to informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the 4th quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information, their own analysis, and their expectations for the game's outcome. This dynamic process establishes a real-time market price that represents the collective forecast of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual 4th quarter spread of the Cardinals-Giants game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by the official game statistics, and contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contract. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Cardinals or the Giants would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. In-game events during the first three quarters, such as a dominant performance by one team or a significant turnover differential, would undoubtedly shift the market as traders react to the unfolding game dynamics.