TOTAL VOLUME:
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2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
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417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This market determines which team will score the most points in the second half of an upcoming football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the New York Giants. It focuses solely on performance during the latter half of the game, ignoring the first half results. The outcome depends on whether one team outscores the other or if the game ends in a tie during that period.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points in the second half (including overtime) of the specified football game. If the New York Giants score more points than the Arizona Cardinals in the second half, that market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the Arizona Cardinals outscore the Giants, their corresponding market resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of points during the second half, neither team market resolves to Yes, and instead the Tie market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the second half count toward determining the outcome, and the results of the first half are irrelevant to this market.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a ‘vig’ or commission into their odds, designed to guarantee their profit. This market, however, is driven purely by what traders believe will happen, creating a more direct reflection of probabilities. While sportsbooks may initially set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market dynamically adjusts as new information and opinions emerge. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can sometimes be more efficient at incorporating diverse viewpoints.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more people buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of victory. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and liquidity – measured by the volume of contracts available at different price points – also influence price movements. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, analysis, and their own insights, leading to a dynamic and evolving price discovery process.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning team of the second half of the Cardinals-Giants game will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official game results as reported by a trusted sports data source. It’s important to note that the resolution process is independent and objective, relying on publicly available data to determine the outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Cardinals or the Giants would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, significant shifts in public opinion, perhaps driven by expert analysis or betting trends, can influence trader behavior. Finally, in-game performance during the first half could lead to adjustments as traders react to the unfolding events and reassess the probabilities for the second half.