TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either the Arizona Cardinals or the New York Giants specifically in the second half of their football game. Outcomes are determined solely by points scored after halftime, including any overtime periods.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the New York Giants. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold, with varying margins required for either team to win by. If the Arizona Cardinals win by exceeding the designated point margin in the second half, the respective 'ARI Cardinals wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the New York Giants achieve their specified margin of victory in the same timeframe, the corresponding 'NY Giants wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Only points scored from the start of the third quarter onward, including any overtime periods, are considered for resolution. All markets are independent, allowing for multiple thresholds to be met depending on the actual point differential.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by analysts who consider various factors, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own insights. It’s common to see discrepancies emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can be valuable for informed decision-making, though it's important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, not guarantees.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half of the Cardinals-Giants game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the most likely spread at this time, and this will fluctuate as more traders participate.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the second half of the Cardinals-Giants game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and the contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. The platform will verify the result and automatically settle all outstanding contracts at that time.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Cardinals or the Giants would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also shift predictions. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first half, and any strategic adjustments made by the coaches, could lead to traders reassessing their probabilities and adjusting their positions in this market.