TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first half of an upcoming football game between two teams. Each market assesses different point differentials to determine the winner and margin of victory within the first half only.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the first half of the designated football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the New York Giants. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's point margin: markets for the Cardinals winning by various margins (from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points) and markets for the Giants winning by various margins (from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points). A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team's first-half point differential exceeds the stated threshold. Only points scored during the first half are considered; the final outcome of the full game or any overtime periods are irrelevant. All markets are independent, allowing for multiple resolutions depending on the exact margin of victory in the first half.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists, it may suggest the market believes a different outcome is more likely than sportsbooks do, or that there's an informational advantage held by prediction market participants. It’s common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than traditional betting venues.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. For example, a contract priced at 60 means it costs 60 dollars to buy a contract that pays out 100 dollars if the outcome occurs. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information, leading to a dynamic price that reflects the collective expectation of the market. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the first half spread between the Arizona Cardinals and the New York Giants will be used to determine whether the 'Cardinals Cover' or 'Giants Cover' contract will pay out. The official result will be sourced from official game statistics and verified against credible public sources. The winning contract will pay out 100 dollars per contract.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Cardinals or Giants would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s style of play, could also shift the market. Unexpected news about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information is being incorporated into the price, causing it to move rapidly.