TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Closed: Jul 12, 12:04 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks individual player performance statistics during the Argentina vs. Switzerland FIFA World Cup match, including goals, assists, shots, shots on target, and combined goal-plus-assist totals for key players and goalkeeper saves. Across Kalshi, Limitless, Predict, and Polymarket, the consensus probability for Lionel Messi recording 1 or more assists stands at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA records. Watch for the match kickoff on July 11, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET, as this marks the event window during which all tracked player statistics will be recorded.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Match date/time mismatch (July 11 vs July 12) and scope divergence (90 min + stoppage vs full match including extra time). Limitless references a Quarter-final on July 12; all others reference July 11 at 9:00 PM ET. This suggests either a scheduling error or that Limitless is trading a different fixture entirely.Hero tip: STOP: Verify the official FIFA World Cup 2026 schedule immediately. If Argentina vs Switzerland is scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET (Group Stage), Limitless is trading the wrong match. If it is scheduled for July 12 as a Quarter-final, then Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict are all trading the wrong match. Do not arbitrage until the fixture date is confirmed. Additionally, if the match goes to extra time, Kalshi will count goals/stats from extra time while Polymarket, Predict, and Limitless will not—this creates a fundamental settlement divergence.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Includes entire game (regulation, stoppage, and any extra time periods). 24-hour resolution window. Scheduled for July 11, 2026. Key quote: 'during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods)' and 'within 24 hours after the event's conclusion.'
- Polymarket: Limits to first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only. Excludes extra time and penalty shootouts. 2-hour resolution window. Scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET. Key quote: 'within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time' and 'Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.'
- Predict: Limits to first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only. Excludes extra time and penalty shootouts. 2-hour resolution window. Scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET. Key quote: 'within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time' and 'Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.'
- Limitless: References July 12, 2026 at 01:00 UTC (Quarter-final, not Group Stage). Limits to 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Excludes extra time and penalties. September 12 deadline for resolution. Key quote: 'July 12, 2026, 01:00 UTC' and 'regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time only)' and 'Goals scored in extra time or penalty shootouts do not count.'
Polymarket
Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Switzerland, scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified player records at least one goal or one assist during the entire Argentina vs Switzerland FIFA World Cup match scheduled for July 11, 2026, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. If a player is listed as active but does not enter the game, the market settles to the last fair market price before game start. Once a player enters the game, resolution is determined solely by the goals and assists officially recorded for that player during the match.
Predict
Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Switzerland, scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET.
Limitless
This market will resolve to "YES" if Lionel Messi scores at least one goal during regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time only) in the Argentina vs Switzerland FIFA World Cup Quarter-final match scheduled for July 12, 2026, 01:00 UTC, as recorded in the official FIFA.com match report for this specific game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO." Goals scored in extra time or penalty shootouts do not count. Own goals by Lionel Messi do not count. If the match is not played and completed with an official result by September 12, 2026, 12:00 UTC, this market will resolve to "NO." If the data on the website is unavailable for 72 hours after the match is completed, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like those featured here operate on continuous pricing set by traders themselves, rather than fixed odds posted by a sportsbook. This means odds shift in real time as new money flows in, reflecting live consensus rather than a bookmaker's margin. Prediction market prices often converge toward true probability because traders profit by spotting mispricings, creating tighter spreads and faster information absorption than traditional sportsbooks. For player props especially, the decentralized nature can reveal sharp edges that sportsbooks haven't yet adjusted.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can push prices apart even on the same underlying event. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have slightly different market designs or settlement rules that influence how traders price risk. Additionally, timing lags in information flow between platforms, combined with varying levels of active participation on each side, can create temporary spreads. Savvy traders monitor both to identify arbitrage opportunities or to gauge which platform's crowd is more confident.
Team lineups and starting XI announcements typically trigger sharp repricing, especially if key players are benched or unavailable. Injury reports, weather conditions, and tactical shifts in training can all shift conviction around specific performers. Pre-match press conferences and betting exchange activity on related markets often precede moves here. Late-breaking news about player form, suspension status, or coaching changes will ripple through this market as traders reassess the probability of individual contributions during the match.