TOTAL VOLUME:

$101.6b

24H VOL:

$132,716,637

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,023,839,311

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,150,639,089

180,958

Markets across

17,976

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,297

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

44%

VS.

Kalshi:

56%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Elections
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Science and Technology
Entertainment
Argentina Monthly Inflation - July
Economics
polymarket
kalshi

What will Argentina's monthly inflation rate be in July?

Total volume:
$13,559
Volume 24h:
$1,620
39%
Liquidity:
$9,327
98%
Open interest:
$1,140
9%
PredictionHero
Above 1.2% 96%
kalshi
Above 1.4% 93%
kalshi
Above 1.6% 92%
kalshi
Jul 15Jul 15Jul 16Jul 16Jul 17Jul 17Jul 17Jul 18Jul 18Jul 18Jul 19Jul 19Jul 19Jul 20Jul 20Jul 20Jul 21Jul 21Jul 22Jul 22020406080100

Time left: 29d:05h:59m

Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 1.2%?

96%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 64% 29 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks Argentina's month-over-month consumer price inflation for July 2026, as officially reported by INDEC (Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census). Both platforms resolve using the same official data source and measurement methodology, with markets structured as binary thresholds or ranges around the expected inflation rate.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use the identical official INDEC monthly CPI report released August 13, 2026, with the same precision (one decimal place) and measurement (monthly percentage change in total national CPI).Primary resolution logic: INDEC (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos de Argentina) official monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI/IPC) news release, accessible at https://www.indec.gob.ar/ under 'Precios al Consumidor', reporting the figure 'Variación % mensual Total nacional' for July 2026.

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution occurs upon official release of the July 2026 INDEC monthly CPI report, currently scheduled for August 13, 2026.
  • The settlement value is the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (Variación % mensual Total nacional) reported to one decimal place (e.g., 1.9%).
  • Polymarket markets resolve as binary YES/NO based on whether the reported inflation falls within specified ranges or thresholds (e.g., <=1.1%, 1.2%-1.4%, >=3.0%).
  • Kalshi markets resolve as YES if the reported inflation exceeds specified thresholds (>1.2%, >1.4%, >1.6%, >1.8%, >2.0%, >2.2%, >2.4%, >2.6%, >2.8%).
  • If July 2026 data is not released by the scheduled date for August 2026 data release, resolution uses the last available month's data.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Delay or Non-Release: If INDEC does not release July 2026 data by the time August 2026 data is scheduled for release, both platforms resolve using the most recent available monthly CPI figure.
  • Rounding and Precision: INDEC reports monthly inflation to one decimal place only. Markets resolve using this official precision; no rounding or interpolation beyond INDEC's reported figure is applied.
  • Polymarket Range Boundaries: Polymarket ranges are inclusive on both ends (e.g., 1.2%-1.4% includes both 1.2% and 1.4%). A reported value of exactly 1.2% resolves YES for the 1.2%-1.4% market.
  • Kalshi Threshold Logic: Kalshi markets use strict 'above' (>) thresholds, not inclusive (>=). A reported value of exactly 2.0% resolves NO for the '>2.0%' market; only values strictly above 2.0% (e.g., 2.1%) resolve YES.
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately upon official release of the INDEC monthly CPI report for July 2026, currently scheduled for August 13, 2026. If data is not released by the next month's scheduled release date, resolution uses the last available data.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in July 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on August 13, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

These markets form a tiered structure tracking Argentina's July 2026 month-over-month inflation rate across nine threshold levels. Each market resolves to Yes if the official inflation rate exceeds its specified threshold: 1.2%, 1.4%, 1.6%, 1.8%, 2.0%, 2.2%, 2.4%, 2.6%, or 2.8%. The structure allows traders to express granular views on inflation intensity, with higher thresholds representing progressively more severe monthly price increases. All markets reference the same underlying inflation metric for July 2026, with resolution dependent on whether the actual rate surpasses each individual threshold. Markets at lower thresholds will resolve Yes more frequently than those at higher thresholds, creating a natural hierarchy where exceeding a higher threshold automatically satisfies all lower thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

The Argentina July inflation market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on what Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate will be in July 2026. This market reflects real-time consensus from prediction traders worldwide who assess economic data, central bank policy, and currency dynamics to forecast price pressures in one of the world's most volatile inflation environments. The dashboard displays current odds, historical price movement, and trading volume across both venues, giving you a unified view of how markets are pricing inflation expectations for that specific month.

Prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from thousands of traders with real financial stakes, often producing forecasts that rival or outperform traditional economist surveys. Unlike analyst consensus, which relies on models and historical patterns, this market prices in live sentiment, breaking news, and collective judgment. Traders who misjudge inflation outcomes lose money, creating strong incentive alignment. While formal analyst forecasts provide valuable context, prediction market odds reflect a dynamic, continuously updated probability that incorporates new information faster than quarterly or monthly analyst updates.

Polymarket currently favors Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%? at 53.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for July 2026 be above 1.2%? at 96.0%. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price differences arise because each platform attracts distinct trader bases with varying risk appetites, time horizons, and information sets. Liquidity depth, fee structures, and regulatory frameworks also differ between venues. Arbitrage opportunities may exist but are constrained by withdrawal delays and platform friction, allowing temporary divergences to persist even on the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Aug 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on the actual month-over-month inflation rate published for July 2026, verified against established economic data sources. Traders holding positions that align with the final outcome receive payouts proportional to their stake and the odds at which they traded. Until that date, prices will fluctuate based on incoming economic indicators, policy announcements, and shifts in trader expectations.

Key catalysts include Argentina's central bank policy decisions, currency movements, wage negotiations, and global commodity price shocks affecting agricultural exports. Monthly inflation data releases from neighboring economies and broader emerging-market trends will influence trader positioning. Supply-side disruptions, energy prices, and fiscal policy announcements from Buenos Aires can shift expectations sharply. Additionally, any surprise in prior-month inflation readings will reset baseline assumptions for July, potentially triggering significant repricing across both platforms as traders update their probability estimates.

Follow the signals, not the noise

Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.

Company

Brand Kit

API & Data Licensing

Methodology

Help Center

Disclaimer

Terms of Use

Privacy Policy

Contact

PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.22.3PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.