TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 8:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Antigua & Barbuda and Aruba, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal difference threshold in a competitive international fixture. The result is determined based on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four separate outcome markets resolving based on the goal differential in the Antigua & Barbuda vs Aruba professional CONCACAF Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 6, 2026. All markets resolve solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the specified team wins by the exact margin required by each market—either Antigua & Barbuda winning by more than 2.5 goals, Antigua & Barbuda winning by more than 1.5 goals, Aruba winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Aruba winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each market functions independently, and the resolution depends strictly on the numerical goal difference without regard to tournament standings or other contextual factors. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with CONCACAF, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective rights holders.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the probability of each outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that prediction market traders possess information or insights not fully incorporated into the sportsbook's pricing. It's a valuable comparison point for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect new information and changing beliefs. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price can move rapidly based on news, analysis, or even large trading volumes. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Antigua & Barbuda vs Aruba match, specifically the final spread. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. The resolution process aims to be transparent and objective.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 7, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or significant shifts in team performance could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or other external factors that might affect the match could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volumes from informed traders or institutions could signal new information or a change in market expectations. Monitoring these signals can provide insights into potential price movements and inform trading strategies.