TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:58 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Ligue 1 soccer match between Angers and Marseille, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the two teams at the end of regular time, including stoppage time but excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Angers vs Marseille Ligue 1 match scheduled for October 18, 2026. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Angers winning by more than 2.5 goals, Angers winning by more than 1.5 goals, Marseille winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Marseille winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The event explicitly states that the platform operating the markets—Kalshi—is not officially affiliated with the governing league, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs. If there's a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that the crowd believes there's value in a particular outcome that sportsbooks haven't fully accounted for. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Angers vs Marseille match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Angers vs Marseille match as officially recorded by the relevant sporting authorities. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts adjusted based on whether their prediction aligned with the actual result. It’s important to monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about key players being unavailable or a significant change in team strategy could also lead to price fluctuations. Public opinion, as reflected in sports news and analysis, can also contribute to movements in this market, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.