TOTAL VOLUME:
$62.1b
24H VOL:
$230,299,833
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,147,874
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,357,275,071
584,048
Markets across
14,467
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,185
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Ligue 1 soccer match between Angers SCO (home) and OGC Nice (away) scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the final outcome (win/loss/draw) and goal-margin thresholds after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses goal-margin thresholds (1.5 and 2.5 goals) as resolution conditions, while Polymarket uses simple binary win/loss/draw outcomes. These are distinct market architectures with no direct equivalence.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi and Polymarket markets as separate trading instruments. Kalshi markets require specific goal margins; Polymarket markets require only match outcome. A single match result may resolve differently across platforms depending on the final score. Monitor both platforms independently and do not cross-hedge assuming identical resolution logic.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Four goal-margin threshold markets. Resolves Yes only if the specified team wins by more than the specified margin (1.5 or 2.5 goals). Example: Angers >2.5 resolves Yes only if Angers wins 3-0, 4-1, etc. Key Quote: 'If Angers wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Nice at Angers professional Ligue 1 soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Three binary outcome markets (Angers win, Nice win, draw). Resolves Yes/No based solely on match outcome, regardless of goal margin. Example: Angers win resolves Yes for any Angers victory (1-0, 2-0, 5-0, etc.). Key Quote: 'If Angers SCO wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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