TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 10:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses different margin-of-victory scenarios for an upcoming NHL game between Anaheim and Winnipeg. It covers various goal-differential thresholds that determine the outcome, reflecting the potential dominance of either team in the match. The resolution depends on the official game result, accounting for possible schedule adjustments.
The event consists of four markets, each tied to specific goal-differential thresholds for either team to win by. If Winnipeg wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If Winnipeg wins by more than 1.5 goals, the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Anaheim wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if Anaheim wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment under unforeseen circumstances.
Frequently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, analytical approaches, or simply variations in public perception. If you find a significant difference between the odds on Kalshi and those offered by sportsbooks, it might indicate an opportunity for value betting, assuming you have a strong conviction about the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Anaheim versus Winnipeg spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price movements. The goal is to 'close the market' with a price that accurately reflects the true probability of the event occurring, as verified after the game.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Anaheim versus Winnipeg game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as determined by the NHL. The market will settle to 100, representing the outcome that corresponds to whether Anaheim covers the spread against Winnipeg. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Anaheim or Winnipeg would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news about goaltender matchups or line combinations could also move the market. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create short-term price fluctuations as traders react to new information or attempt to capitalize on perceived mispricings.