TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 12:57 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between America and Tijuana, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined based on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are settled according to specific goal-difference thresholds that define a winning condition for each team.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the America vs Tijuana professional Liga MX soccer match scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Four distinct outcome conditions are evaluated: America winning by more than 2.5 goals, America winning by more than 1.5 goals, Tijuana winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Tijuana winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, all markets resolve to No. The settlement is strictly based on the official match result as recorded by the governing league, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league or ownership of related trademarks and branding.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may initially incorporate public perception and biases, while this market allows individuals to express their own informed opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd believes there's value or mispricing relative to established bookmakers, offering a different perspective on the likely result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to new information or shifts in sentiment. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the America vs Tijuana match, as officially recorded. Any potential adjustments or official rulings related to the match will be considered to ensure an accurate and fair resolution. The platform will then determine the winning contracts and distribute payouts accordingly.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments announced by either team could impact expectations. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the match could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in sports news and analysis, can drive price movements. Major upsets in related matches or changes in team performance leading up to the event are also likely to affect the market.