TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 12:12 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Mikhail Kukushkin in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Mikhail Kukushkin. This market will resolve to 'Mikhail Kukushkin' if Mikhail Kukushkin advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Mikhail Kukushkin in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Mikhail Kukushkin. This market will resolve to 'Mikhail Kukushkin' if Mikhail Kukushkin advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd approach, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and promotional offers, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If sportsbook odds heavily favor one player, but this market shows a more balanced probability distribution, it could indicate disagreement with the conventional wisdom. It’s important to note that prediction markets can sometimes be more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when a large and diverse group participates.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Tsitsipas vs Kukushkin match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the match gets, the more responsive the price will be to new information. Currently, the market indicates a strong expectation for one outcome, but this can change as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Almaty Open match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Mikhail Kukushkin. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders who held shares in the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at the time of resolution, while those who bet on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their shares.
Several factors could influence this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even pre-match interviews revealing strategic insights could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches within the Almaty Open tournament might also indirectly affect perceptions of player form and confidence. Furthermore, significant trading volume from well-informed participants could signal a change in expectations. Monitoring these signals and the overall trading activity on Polymarket will be key to understanding potential market movements.