TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 5:46 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Taro Daniel and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Almaty Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taro Daniel' if Taro Daniel advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Taro Daniel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Taro Daniel and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Almaty Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taro Daniel' if Taro Daniel advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Taro Daniel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on player form, potential injuries, or even subtle factors not fully accounted for by sportsbooks. Analyzing these differences can reveal insights into where the crowd believes there’s value, or where sportsbooks might have mispriced the event.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each player winning. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the fair probability of a particular outcome, based on available information and analysis. The market’s price is driven by supply and demand for shares.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Almaty Open match between Taro Daniel and Nikoloz Basilashvili. The platform will verify the result against official tournament data to determine the winning player and settle the market accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when the market will be finalized.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated match previews from tennis analysts could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in earlier rounds of the tournament, or significant changes in player rankings, might also impact the market. Furthermore, late-breaking information about player fitness or strategic adjustments could lead to price movements as traders react to new data and reassess their predictions.