TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 11:31 PM EST
Kalshi
Two Peruvian soccer teams, Alianza Lima and Atletico Grau, compete in a league match where the winner after regular time determines the outcome. The result will reflect either a victory for Alianza Lima, a win for Atletico Grau, or a draw if both teams finish with equal scores after 90 minutes plus any added stoppage time.
The event involves three possible outcomes for the Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026: a win for Alianza Lima, a win for Atletico Grau, or a tie. The market resolves based on the result after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price following predefined procedures. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their view. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing a particular outcome, they can trade accordingly, driving the prediction market odds in a different direction. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges and public sentiment evolves leading up to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to find an equilibrium. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity indicate how strongly traders feel about each potential result, providing insight into collective predictions about the Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau match.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau match, as reported by official sources, will determine the winning contract. The resolution will reflect the official match result, including any potential overtime or penalty shootouts, as determined by the governing sporting body. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team lineups, or changes in coaching staff for either Alianza Lima or Atletico Grau could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected weather conditions at the match venue could also play a role. Furthermore, general shifts in public sentiment, driven by expert analysis or social media discussion, can impact trading activity and, consequently, the market prices. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.