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Closed: Oct 6, 2:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi predicts whether over 2.5 goals will be scored in the Algeria versus Niger international friendly soccer match. Currently, the probability of over 2.5 goals being scored is 99.0%. Resolution will be determined by the total goals scored in 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as reported by the official match data. Keep an eye on the match itself, scheduled for October 6, 2026, as the final whistle will determine whether the market resolves to ‘Yes’ based on whether more than 5.5 goals were scored.
The event evaluates multiple outcome thresholds for the total goals scored in the Algeria vs Niger professional international friendly soccer match scheduled for October 6, 2026. Each threshold—ranging from over 0.5 goals to over 5.5 goals—is assessed based on the combined number of goals scored by both teams after the full 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time added by the referee. Extra time and penalty shootouts are explicitly excluded from consideration. All markets resolve solely on the official match result as recorded by the governing league, with Kalshi emphasizing that it holds no official affiliation or endorsement from the league or its associated entities. Trademarks and branding remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance their risk, while this market’s price is driven entirely by supply and demand from traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price for that outcome will rise. Conversely, if traders disagree with sportsbook odds, the price will move in the opposite direction. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a large influx of trading activity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the total goals scored and trading contracts at favorable prices. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the market price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total number of goals scored in the Algeria vs Niger match, as officially recorded by the governing football association, will determine the winning contract. Any extra time or penalty shootouts will not be considered; only goals scored during regular play count towards the resolution of this market. The official match result will be used to determine the payout for all contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Algeria or Niger would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain, could also impact the expected goal total. Unexpected tactical decisions from the coaches, or even early goals scored in the match, could shift trader sentiment. Any pre-match analysis from reputable football analysts suggesting a higher or lower goal expectation could also influence trading activity in this market.