TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 4:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Alaves will win their La Liga soccer match against Malaga. Currently, Kalshi gives Alaves a 50.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 33.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the game as reported by the official result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, according to Kalshi’s resolution source. Traders should watch the kickoff on October 23, 2026, as the result of that match will determine the market’s resolution.
The market resolves based on the result of the Alaves vs Malaga professional La Liga soccer game scheduled for October 23, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Alaves wins, the 'Alaves' market resolves to Yes. If Malaga wins, the 'Malaga' market resolves to Yes. If the game ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours away from the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs. If prediction market odds significantly diverge from sportsbook lines, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be accurate.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Alaves vs Malaga match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will determine which outcome—Alaves winning, Malaga winning, or a draw—is the correct result based on the final score. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 23, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Alaves or Malaga could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected weather conditions on match day or even pre-match analysis from reputable sports analysts could also impact trader sentiment. Major upsets in other related matches, or even significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks, might also cause movement in this market as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.