TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 12:17 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets assess whether Alaves or Atletico secures a victory with a margin exceeding specific goal differences during the same La Liga fixture, calculated solely within the 90-minute regulation period plus stoppage time.
The markets evaluate whether Alaves wins by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or whether Atletico wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, in the Alaves vs Atletico professional La Liga soccer game on October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Only regular-time goals count; extra time and penalties are excluded. Kalshi states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome in the Alaves vs Atletico match, you may see divergence between the two. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially as game day approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid to buy and offer to sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Alaves vs Atletico match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current estimate of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly evolving based on supply and demand, providing a unique perspective on the potential result of the game.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Alaves vs Atletico match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the game, as determined by official sports data providers. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. This allows participants to profit from their accurate predictions regarding the match’s final score differential.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 10, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Alaves or Atletico would likely cause price movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on game day could also influence trader behavior. Unexpected news about team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role, as traders react to any information that alters their assessment of the Alaves vs Atletico match’s likely outcome.