TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 11:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the outcome of a professional soccer match between Alacranes and Zacatecas, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The resolution depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold within regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Alacranes or Zacatecas wins the match originally scheduled for October 3, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Four distinct thresholds are evaluated: Alacranes winning by more than 2.5 goals, Alacranes winning by more than 1.5 goals, Zacatecas winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Zacatecas winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The outcome is determined solely within regular time; extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price of that outcome will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of money has been traded on the market, offering potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Alacranes vs Zacatecas game. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event’s likelihood. The current price reflects the combined judgment of all traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread in the Alacranes vs Zacatecas game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result announced by the relevant sporting authority. Traders holding contracts on the winning side of the spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing side will forfeit their stake. The resolution process ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Alacranes or Zacatecas teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team strategy, weather conditions expected during the game, or even public sentiment shifts based on pre-game analysis could all impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements or developments related to the teams or the event itself are also likely to cause the market to react and adjust its pricing.