TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 1:02 AM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on forecasting the margin of victory in the same soccer match, with different thresholds for each team winning by a certain number of goals.
The event resolves based on the winning margin in the Alacranes vs Tapatio professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer game scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty kicks are excluded. If Alacranes wins by more than the specified goal difference, the corresponding market resolves to Yes for Alacranes. If Tapatio wins by more than the specified goal difference, the corresponding market resolves to Yes for Tapatio. If neither team meets their respective threshold, all markets resolve to No. The outcome is determined by the official match result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Alacranes vs Tapatio match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on their analysis, news, and expectations, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The current price indicates what traders are collectively willing to pay or receive for a contract predicting a specific outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the Alacranes vs Tapatio match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual point spread achieved in the game. The market will determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the ranges defined by the available contracts. The final result will be determined by official game statistics and verified against credible public sources.
Several signals could influence this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Alacranes or Tapatio could significantly shift expectations and impact trading activity. Changes in team form, coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could also play a role. Unexpected announcements about player availability, or even significant shifts in public sentiment based on pre-game analysis, could all contribute to price movements in this market. Major news events related to either team will likely be reflected in the price.