TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 11:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Alacranes and Atletico Morelia, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Bets are settled based on whether a team wins by a specified goal differential.
The event resolves based on the outcome of the Alacranes vs Atletico Morelia professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer match scheduled for October 31, 2026. The final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties) determines resolution. Four distinct outcome thresholds are evaluated: Alacranes winning by more than 2.5 goals, Alacranes winning by more than 1.5 goals, Atletico Morelia winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Atletico Morelia winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market matching one of these conditions resolves to 'Yes,' with all others resolving to 'No.' The governing league’s official result is the sole authority, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league or ownership of related trademarks and branding.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and risk management strategies, while this market relies on individuals forecasting the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the teams' strengths. It's common to see this market and sportsbook lines converge as the event approaches, but significant differences can present arbitrage opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread in the Alacranes vs Morelia match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The current price reflects the collective expectation of the spread, allowing traders to express their views and potentially profit from accurate predictions.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Alacranes vs Morelia match, as officially recorded, will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the league or governing body responsible for the match. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the Alacranes vs Morelia match takes place. Key player injuries or suspensions on either team would likely cause significant movement, as would any unexpected changes in team form or coaching strategies. News regarding weather conditions, particularly if they could affect the style of play, could also impact trading activity. Finally, any significant public statements from team personnel or analysts offering strong opinions about the expected outcome could shift market sentiment and drive price fluctuations.