TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 7:23 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various thresholds of points scored in the final quarter of a college football matchup, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of different scoring levels in the game's closing moments. The resolution depends solely on the combined points tallied by both teams during the fourth quarter, excluding any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both teams combined during the fourth quarter (excluding overtime) of the Alabama vs Tennessee college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: if the combined score exceeds the stated threshold (e.g., 2.5, 5.5, up to 27.5 points), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. For any game postponement, if play commences within 48 hours of the original scheduled start time, the market remains active and resolves according to the final official result. If the game does not start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific threshold they selected.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the actual result. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of team strengths. If there's a significant difference, it might indicate that prediction market participants believe the sportsbook is undervaluing or overvaluing a particular outcome in the Alabama-Tennessee 4th quarter.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different point totals for the 4th quarter, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe the 4th quarter will be high-scoring, contracts for higher point totals will become more expensive, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the 4th quarter of the Alabama versus Tennessee game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total points scored in the 4th quarter will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders will then receive payouts based on their positions in the market and whether their predicted point total was correct.
Several factors could influence the Alabama-Tennessee 4th quarter market. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to a high-scoring or low-scoring game, could also impact trading activity. In-game events during the first three quarters, such as a dominant performance by one team or a series of turnovers, could shift expectations and lead to adjustments in the market price. Any unexpected developments leading up to or during the game could create volatility.