TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
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2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 3:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the second half of a college football game between Alabama and Mississippi State, specifically how many points Alabama or Mississippi State will win by during that period. Each market corresponds to a different point margin threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered successful.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the Alabama vs Mississippi State college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. For markets where Alabama must win by a specified margin, the market resolves to Yes if Alabama's second-half point total exceeds Mississippi State's by more than the stated threshold. Conversely, for markets where Mississippi State must win by a specified margin, the market resolves to Yes if Mississippi State's second-half points exceed Alabama's by more than the threshold. All markets exclusively consider points scored in the second half and overtime of that half. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs. Often, you’ll find that this market incorporates information and analysis that isn’t immediately reflected in sportsbook lines, potentially leading to discrepancies. However, as the event approaches, the odds on both sides tend to converge as more information becomes available and public opinion solidifies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders about the likely outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the spread, as profitable trades are rewarded. The current price indicates the probability that the actual spread will fall on or beyond the specified value at the end of the second half.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the second half of the Alabama-Mississippi State game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of college football. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their investment. The final spread will be the determining factor for all contracts within this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Alabama or Mississippi State teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift the spread. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as public perception shifts based on expert analysis, can all contribute to fluctuations in the market price leading up to Oct 3, 2026.