TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 1:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the point differential in the first half of an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might perform in the initial 30 minutes of play.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the designated Alabama vs Mississippi St. college football game. For markets where Alabama is the favored team, resolution occurs if Alabama's point differential exceeds the specified threshold by the end of the first half. Conversely, markets favoring Mississippi St. resolve if their point differential surpasses the stated margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original schedule, all markets remain active and resolve according to the actual first-half result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets settle at a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty introduced by the delay. The resolving entity remains independent of official NCAA affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs about the game's outcome. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price on Kalshi will move in response, potentially offering a different value than what’s available at a sportsbook. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges closer to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first half. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. Buyers believe the spread will be *less* than the contract's spread, while sellers believe it will be *more*. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective expectation of all traders on the platform, and it’s constantly updating as new trades are made. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the probability of various outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-half spread of the Alabama vs Mississippi State game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as determined by the governing body of college football. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout of $1.00 per contract, while those on the incorrect side will receive $0.00. The precise timing of the resolution may depend on the speed of official result reporting.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Alabama or Mississippi State teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a shift in expectations and move the market accordingly.