TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 4:12 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various margin-based outcomes for an upcoming professional soccer match in the AFC Champions League. It focuses on the potential differences in scoring between the two competing teams at the end of regular time, without considering extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event encompasses four distinct outcome scenarios based on the goal differential between Al-Ittihad and Shabab Al-Ahli in their scheduled AFC Champions League match on October 13, 2026. All resolutions occur after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty phases. The first scenario resolves positively if Al-Ittihad secures a victory by more than a two-goal margin. The second scenario triggers a positive resolution if Al-Ittihad wins by more than a single goal. Conversely, the third scenario resolves positively when Shabab Al-Ahli achieves a win by more than one goal. The final scenario resolves positively if Shabab Al-Ahli prevails by a margin exceeding two goals. Each rule operates independently, and the market outcome depends solely on the final score within these defined parameters. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a relatively small number of experts, while this market incorporates insights from many participants. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before a significant amount of trading occurs. Analyzing these differences can be a useful exercise for informed forecasting, though it's important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al-Ahli match. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the market’s collective forecast. The current price indicates what the market believes is the likelihood of a particular outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al-Ahli match, as determined by official results, will be used to determine winning contracts. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 14, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or tactical changes could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about the availability of key players for either Al-Ittihad or Shabab Al-Ahli would likely cause significant movement. Furthermore, major upsets in other related matches or changes in public perception of the teams’ strengths could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.