TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 3:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams in an international tournament. The result is determined by the final score after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. Markets will adjust fairly if the match is significantly rescheduled or canceled.
The event resolves based on the result of the Al Gharafa vs Al Qadsiah professional AFC Champions League soccer match originally scheduled for November 2, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three distinct markets correspond to possible outcomes: a win for Al Gharafa, a win for Al Qadsiah, or a tie. If the match concludes with a victory for either team within regular time, the respective market resolves to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the match is canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following Kalshi's procedures. The event specifically excludes extra time and penalty shootout results from determining outcomes.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs about the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional forecasts, as they aggregate diverse perspectives and incentivize informed trading.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event's likelihood. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and interest in each potential result.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Al Gharafa vs Al Qadsiah match, as determined by the governing sporting body. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances once the resolution process is complete. It's important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand the potential impact on this market.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before Nov 2, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player suspensions could significantly shift the odds. Furthermore, performance in preceding matches, weather conditions on the day of the game, and even public sentiment expressed on social media can all play a role. Major upsets in related matches or shifts in expert analysis could also trigger movement, as traders react to new information and adjust their positions.