TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 1:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event evaluates the margin of victory in the same soccer match, focusing on whether one team wins by a sufficient number of goals. The result hinges on the difference in goals between the two teams, not just who wins.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential if Al-Fayha or Al Ahli Saudi wins the match scheduled for October 19, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for Al-Fayha occurs if they win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. A 'Yes' outcome for Al Ahli Saudi occurs if they win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. The markets are independent of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by analysts who consider various factors, such as team statistics and player performance. However, this market allows anyone to trade, and the price is determined by supply and demand. Therefore, the odds here can diverge from sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see differences, especially as the event approaches and more people participate in the market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Al-Fayha vs Al Ahli match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Al-Fayha vs Al Ahli match as officially recorded by sports data providers. The market will settle to 100 if the spread is as predicted, and proportionally less if the actual spread differs. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 19, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Al-Fayha or Al Ahli would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or coaching changes could also shift the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a change in expectations and drive price fluctuations in this market.