TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 12:53 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate whether the winning team achieves a victory by a margin exceeding specific goal differences, focusing solely on regular time plus stoppage time, without considering extra time or penalties.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential if Al-Fateh or Al Ahli Saudi wins the match. The game in question is the Al-Fateh vs Al Ahli Saudi professional Saudi Pro League soccer match scheduled for October 9, 2026, and only goals scored within the 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time added by the referee count—extra time and penalty shootout goals are excluded. The first two markets require Al-Fateh to win by more than 2.5 and 1.5 goals respectively, while the latter two require Al Ahli Saudi to win by more than 1.5 and 2.5 goals respectively. If the specified team meets or exceeds the exact goal differential stated in a market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. As with the total goals markets, all share the same secondary disclaimer regarding Kalshi's lack of affiliation with the governing league and trademark ownership.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows traders to express their own independent views, which can lead to odds that diverge from traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information more quickly than sportsbooks, leading to potentially more accurate probabilities as the event approaches. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Al-Fateh vs Al Ahli Saudi match, specifically the spread. The outcome will be determined by the official result reported by a trusted source, and the market will settle accordingly. Traders will then receive payouts based on the final outcome and their positions in the market. The resolution process ensures a transparent and verifiable result.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before Oct 9, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Al-Fateh or Al Ahli could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also impact trading volume and prices. Unexpected announcements about player availability or changes in coaching staff could also be catalysts for movement. Overall, any information that alters the perceived probability of either team winning by the specified spread could cause the market to react.