TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 3:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional basketball game between two teams competing in an official league. The result depends solely on which team secures a victory in the scheduled match. Any changes to the game's timing or cancellation will follow specific guidelines to determine the final settlement.
The event resolves based on the winner of the men's professional LNB Elite 2 basketball game between Aix Maurienne Savoie Basket and Champagne Basketball, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026, at 2:00 PM EDT. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves according to the official result. If the game is cancelled or fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price. The outcome is determined exclusively by the final score of the match, with no additional performance metrics or external factors influencing the resolution.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs. If a significant amount of money is wagered on a particular outcome, it can shift the odds in this market, potentially revealing information not yet fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, access to information, or risk tolerance among participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the current market consensus on the probability of that outcome occurring. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more contracts purchased for a specific outcome, the higher its price rises, indicating increased confidence in that result. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Aix Maurienne Savoie Basket versus Champagne Basketball game. The platform will verify the final score against reliable sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to Oct 9, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or significant performance shifts could impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale might also cause movement. Furthermore, general basketball news, public sentiment, and even large individual trades on Kalshi can all contribute to fluctuations in the market price. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how the market evolves as the game approaches.