TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 12:19 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Wyoming will win their college football game against Air Force by more than 1.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives Wyoming winning by over 1.5 points a 58.0% probability. The market resolves based on the final score of the Air Force vs Wyoming game originally scheduled for October 23, 2026, as determined by the game’s official results. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve based on the outcome of the match on the estimated resolution date of 2026-10-24.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Air Force vs Wyoming college football game scheduled for October 23, 2026. Each market has a specific point-spread threshold: if Air Force wins by more than the stated margin, the corresponding "Air Force wins by over X points" market resolves to Yes; if Wyoming wins by more than the stated margin, the corresponding "Wyoming wins by over X points" market resolves to Yes; otherwise, the market resolves to No. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Polls and analysts’ predictions often align more closely with prediction market prices than with initial sportsbook lines, as both attempt to synthesize diverse information sources into a probability assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Air Force vs Wyoming game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus view. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time estimate of the game's likely result.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Air Force vs Wyoming football game. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread falls within the range of contracts purchased, and to 0 otherwise. Traders holding contracts on the winning side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to the game. Any news regarding key player injuries on either the Air Force or Wyoming teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in team strategy, as reported by credible sports news sources, could also prompt traders to adjust their positions. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create price fluctuations as traders react to new information or attempt to capitalize on perceived opportunities.