TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 10:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the point differential in a college football game between Air Force and Northern Illinois, allowing participants to bet on various margins of victory for either team.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential of the Air Force vs Northern Illinois college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point spread threshold, with outcomes resolving to 'Yes' if Air Force's victory exceeds the specified margin, or if Northern Illinois's victory exceeds its respective margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point differential conditions outlined in individual markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. If a significant difference exists, it may indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly as new information becomes available, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities than those offered by sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, analysis, and their own insights, which drives price fluctuations. The more a particular spread is bought, the higher its price becomes, indicating greater confidence in that outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread established by the official game results will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Air Force or Northern Illinois would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also influence the spread. Late-breaking news about team morale, coaching decisions, or unexpected roster changes could also shift trader sentiment. Additionally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and lead to price adjustments as traders react to perceived new information.