TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 8:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This prediction group concerns the outcome of a single AHL hockey game between the Bakersfield Condors and the San Jose Barracuda scheduled for November 1, 2026. The market resolves to the winning team, with a tiebreaker rule for shootouts and a 50-50 split if the game is canceled without a reschedule.
In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for November 1 at 6:00PM ET: If Bakersfield Condors win, the market will resolve to "Bakersfield Condors". If San Jose Barracuda win, the market will resolve to "San Jose Barracuda". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
The event determines the winner of the professional AHL hockey game between Bakersfield Condors and San Jose Barracuda scheduled for November 1, 2026. If either team wins the game as officially recorded, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the market remains active and resolves based on the final official result. If the game is cancelled or fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow the crowd to determine the probabilities. This market’s implied probabilities may differ from those offered by sportsbooks due to variations in information access, analytical approaches, and the incentives of participants. It's valuable to compare both to gain a well-rounded understanding of the potential outcomes.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for several reasons. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information regarding the AHL Condors-Barracuda game. Trading volume also plays a role; lower volume on one platform can lead to greater price fluctuations. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for price discovery – how traders can buy and sell predictions – differ between Polymarket and Kalshi, contributing to potential discrepancies in the perceived probabilities. These factors can result in differing assessments of the same event.