TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 6:39 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between AD Sanjoanense and CD Nacional, scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "AD Sanjoanense" if AD Sanjoanense are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "CD Nacional" if CD Nacional are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between AD Sanjoanense and CD Nacional, scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "AD Sanjoanense" if AD Sanjoanense are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "CD Nacional" if CD Nacional are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing a particular outcome, the prediction market odds will adjust accordingly, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of the true probability. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or news breaks.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether AD Sanjoanense or CD Nacional will score first. As more shares are purchased for one outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, adjusting in real-time to new information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which team is officially recorded as scoring the first goal in the AD Sanjoanense vs. CD Nacional match. The official match records will serve as the definitive source for determining the winning outcome. Any disputes will be evaluated based on publicly available data and established sporting regulations, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either AD Sanjoanense or CD Nacional would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Changes in team form, recent match results, or tactical adjustments announced by the managers could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even pre-match analysis from respected football commentators, could all contribute to movement in this market. Essentially, any information that alters perceptions of each team’s chances of scoring first has the potential to move the odds.