TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This event assesses the margin of victory in the same soccer match, focusing on whether one team wins by a substantial gap. The result hinges on the difference in goals between the two teams meeting certain thresholds.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential if AC Goianiense or Sport Recife wins the professional Brasileiro Serie B soccer game scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Specific thresholds define resolution: AC Goianiense must win by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, while Sport Recife must win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals for respective markets to resolve as Yes. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, while sportsbook odds are typically set by a smaller team of professionals. This can lead to differences, as prediction markets may incorporate information and perspectives not fully captured by sportsbooks. It's common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information, potentially offering different value than traditional sports betting options. However, sportsbook odds still represent a significant benchmark for evaluating the perceived probabilities in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The spread is determined by the difference in prices between the 'yes' and 'no' contracts, indicating the market's expectation of the point differential in the AC Goianiense vs Sport Recife match. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final point spread of the AC Goianiense vs Sport Recife match, as determined by official game statistics. The market will determine whether the spread was accurately predicted by traders on Kalshi. The final result will be sourced from official sports data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency in determining the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Key injuries to star players on either AC Goianiense or Sport Recife would likely cause significant movement, as would any changes in team form or coaching strategies. Unexpected news regarding player suspensions or weather conditions affecting the match could also impact trading activity. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could signal shifts in market sentiment and drive price fluctuations in this market.