TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 5:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between AC Goianiense and Gremio Novorizontino, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between AC Goianiense and Gremio Novorizontino in their Brasileiro Serie B soccer match scheduled for October 24, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are possible, each corresponding to a specific winning margin: AC Goianiense winning by more than 2.5 goals, AC Goianiense winning by more than 1.5 goals, Gremio Novorizontino winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Gremio Novorizontino winning by more than 2.5 goals. The match result is determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with extra time and penalty outcomes excluded from consideration. All markets share the same secondary disclaimer stating that Kalshi is not officially affiliated with the governing league and that all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, while this market’s pricing is driven by traders who are incentivized to express their true beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome, they can take the opposite position in this market, causing the odds to converge or diverge. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news impacts perceptions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price can change rapidly as new information becomes available or as more traders participate in the market, offering a real-time reflection of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the match between AC Goianiense and Gremio Novorizontino as reported by official sources. Traders will be able to see the final result and whether their predictions were accurate after the event concludes. The platform will then process all winning and losing contracts based on the verified outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, suspensions, or changes in team lineups would likely cause price movement. Unexpected weather conditions or a shift in coaching strategies could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, major upsets in other Serie B matches or broader trends in Brazilian football could indirectly affect perceptions of the teams’ chances. Monitoring these signals and analyzing their potential impact is key to understanding how this market might evolve.